During the NBA draft in June, Celtics coach Doc Rivers gave his take on the offseason strategies of teams. Rivers noted about one-third of the league’s 30 teams seemed confident of going for the championship next season. Those teams are willing to spend money on free agents, the others shying away, believing they do not have a realistic chance of contending.
“Nine or 10 teams think they can win the championship next year, and you can see by the moves,’’ Rivers said. “Because of the economy, 20 or 21 feel they can’t. A group of nine looked at the Finals last year and said, ‘We can do this,’ and they are going for it.’’
Rivers’s assessment is playing out, but not just because of the economic downturn.
Most of the league’s teams simply cannot compete with the elite, so they are undertaking long-term rebuilding programs, or setting themselves up for next year’s free agent extravaganza.
But there are other factors muddling the free agent market.
Agents have struggled to judge the level of demand for players. The fates of restricted free agents Marcin Gortat, 25, and Glen Davis, 23, show how confounding the market can be.
Gortat gained a full midlevel exception contract offer from Dallas within a week of being eligible last month, the Orlando Magic matching. Gortat averaged 3.8 points per game in the regular season and 3.3 in the playoffs in 2008-09.
Meanwhile, Davis, who averaged 7 points in the regular season and 15.8 in the playoffs with the Celtics in ’08-09, has yet to receive an offer, and will likely settle for something less than the midlevel exception.
Gortat-Davis is an apples-and-oranges comparison, Gortat being a mobile 7-footer, Davis equally mobile but considerably shorter. But in recent offseasons, Davis would likely have been assured a contract worth the midlevel exception, based on his late-season and playoff performances. That still could happen for Davis, but the way things are going his expectations might have to be lowered.
“In my particular case, I couldn’t be happier,’’ said Guy Zucker, Gortat’s agent. “Gortat got the best deal of the year, the full midlevel exception, fully guaranteed for five years, equal to [Antonio] McDyess and [Rasheed] Wallace, [Ron] Artest, [Trevor] Ariza. Marcin played well in the playoffs and it helps that [the Magic] got to the Finals. He’s a center, he’s fast, athletic, quick, plays the pick-and-roll well, and plays with a lot of heart. And he played big in big moments. Whenever a team does well it helps everyone - coaches, players, GMs, owners, everyone.’’
Gortat is still a backup and, so far, an exception to a trend, and not just a midlevel one.
The trades of Ryan Anderson and Vince Carter from New Jersey to Orlando and Richard Jefferson from Milwaukee to San Antonio “would never have happened in a normal market,’’ Zucker said.
Anderson’s contract was expiring and Carter’s contract would have launched the Nets near $80 million in salaries next season. So, the Nets chose to stay with a young, relatively cheap roster, awaiting the 2010 free agent market. Milwaukee, like other medium- and small-market franchises, is simply cutting costs based on the economy, and on the NBA’s projected loss of revenues and reduction of the salary cap.
Then there is Allen Iverson, who earned $20.8 million from Detroit last season. If Iverson receives an offer, it will likely be a one-year, midlevel exception deal.
“It is not a lack of money, but a strategy,’’ Zucker said. “New York, for example, could easily pay more but is choosing not to. They want to reduce the payroll and grab a superstar.’’
The “haves’’ are using the perceived economic downturn to their advantage. When the negotiating period began last month, many free agents expected teams to come to them. As time goes on, some of those free agents are not receiving the offers hoped for, so they are going from the pursued to the role of pursuers, going to teams with reduced demands.
There is also the European part of the equation. The failure of Dynamo Moscow signaled a significant reduction in demand for foreign players, reducing US players’ bargaining powers. Last year, Dynamo Moscow awarded contracts worth about $3 million to Bostjan Nachbar and Jannero Pargo. Now, those contracts are not worth their weight in rubles.
“A year ago, the market peaked for energy prices and the euro had a favorable exchange,’’ said Zucker, a Boston University graduate. “Ukraine and Russia are energy-driven markets, and now teams like Dynamo Moscow are barely able to function. Several teams could offer seven-figure salaries, not to superstars but to midlevel and below players. Now they can’t, so that takes away 15 to 20 jobs and reduces the leverage of the guys above them.’’
So, based on how teams have approached the free agent market, these could be the Celtics’ competition next season: Cleveland, Detroit, Orlando, and Toronto in the Eastern Conference, and the defending champion Lakers, Dallas, Houston, Portland, and San Antonio in the Western Conference. Denver, Phoenix, and Utah have been willing to spend to keep free agents but have not gone outside for help.
But whatever happens during the remainder of the offseason, it is merely a prelude to next year’s free agency bonanza.
Scalabrine believes the best is ahead
Brian Scalabrine was on the same page as Celtics management with free agents. And Scalabrine believes the acquisitions of Rasheed Wallace and Marquis Daniels will make the Celtics the favorites to regain the championship.“I’m loving Rasheed Wallace,’’ Scalabrine said last week at a State House presentation for the team’s Heroes Among Us program. “And Marquis Daniels gives us versatility. Those two things, I think, make us the best team in the league.
“I’m incredibly psyched. Winning championships is something I want to continue to do. I felt we were the best team in the league last year, the year before, and we will be the best team in the league this year. The key thing for us is limiting guys’ minutes and being healthy. Our bench needs to be able to sustain leads or build them.
“Rasheed Wallace, if I had to name one guy that I’d want on our team he’d be the guy. The way Doc [ Rivers] uses power forwards, he’s a perfect fit for us. Defensively, he’s a dominant force and his basketball IQ is through the roof. [Daniels] is going to help Ray [ Allen] and Paul [ Pierce] get some rest throughout the season. And I’ve heard he can also play some point guard for us, so it would be nice to have him as backup, and maybe play with Eddie [ House] at [shooting guard]. He’s super versatile and that’s going to help us a lot.’’
The Celtics were 25 games above .500 after the first 29 games (27-2) last season. In the final 67 games, including playoffs, the Celtics were 17 games above .500 (42-25), losing Kevin Garnett (knee) in February.
“If we would have beaten Orlando or lost in the Finals without Kevin, I would have thought we overachieved,’’ Scalabrine said. “But even the team we had out there, we had really good players. But the biggest thing was the season wearing on, and wearing on Paul and Ray, the amount of time they had to play. Even then, those guys were awesome, what they did. But for us, it’s staying healthy and our bench has to sustain leads.’’
The Celtics had a 3-2 advantage over Orlando in the Eastern Conference semifinals, and maintained the lead going into the final quarter of Game 6 before losing, 83-75.
“Game 6 was disappointing; I’ll probably never get over it,’’ Scalabrine said. “But you have to move on.’’
Etc.
Waiting by the phone
Jeff Adrien said he is “still playing the waiting game’’ after suiting up for Memphis in the Las Vegas Summer League. Adrien, a Brookline native who played for the University of Connecticut, last month had a tryout with the Celtics, and has been looking to catch on as a free agent after being bypassed in the draft. The forward has to prove himself as a perimeter threat, but teams are realizing he could be a force off the bench as a rebounder and overachieving scorer near the basket. In Las Vegas, Adrien had 35 points and 26 rebounds in 78 minutes of playing time in four games, shooting 11 for 23 from the field and 13 for 20 from the foul line, as the Grizzlies went 5-0. Mass appeal
Former University of Massachusetts forwards Gary Forbes, Tony Gaffney, and Stephane Lasme had productive showings in Vegas. Forbes averaged 17.8 points for the D-League Select team and Lasme averaged 5 points for San Antonio. Gaffney, a Boston native, averaged 3.8 points for the Lakers and has been invited to training camp in October. Bench boss
David Blatt, who went from Framingham to Princeton to a major coaching career in Europe, will guide Russia in the European Championships in Poland next month. Blatt was recently fired by Efes Pilsen in Turkey but could return to Benetton Treviso, which last week added former Southern California guard Danny Hackett. The bad news for Blatt’s Russians is Andrei Kirilenko (Utah) will not play because of “personal reasons.’’
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