There’s been a real upsurge of traffic here, in the last week or so. There could be a thousand reasons for this, the most likely being that all of us are playing the same waiting game (for Gortat, for trades) and we’re all scouring the web to see if anything’s happened. For all I know, 80% of this new traffic opens up this column, screams “OH GOD NO,” leaps away from their computer, unplugs it for good measure, and then calls a witchdoctor. I really don’t know.
But, whatever the reason is, I just wanted to thank you folks. There are plenty of places on the web with more stuff. Basically everybody has more insider information than I do. All I try to do is approach Mavericks-related topics with some plain ol’ commonsense, try to break through the hype and cling, as furiously as I can, to this little branch we call reality to whatever extent my faculties enable me to do so. And I try to run some stats in creative ways. I hope you like it.
One of these TYPES of points I’d like to make is about Roddy Beaubois, who last night had a scintillating 34-8-5 night in the Las Vegas Summer League. David Thorpe, one of the dons of basketball analysis, said things like: “I can’t take my eyes off Beaubois.” “Beaubois sees things”. “Beaubois has been the best pure point guard I’ve seen this summer.”
As some of you know, I wasn’t high on the Mavericks drafting of Beaubois. I don’t need to be right, and I hope I’m not. But the thing is—the NBA is not like the MLB. Long range projects in baseball?
You have three (well lots, really) levels of minor league, whereas the NBA is working hard at establishing just one, sure. That’s not the biggest difference though. If you have a young, talented batter in baseball, you can play him—he’s just one of 9 batters. You can pull him in an important situation, you can let him hit all he wants against real major league pitchers with no one on base. If he’s a pitcher, start him in relief—even if it’s a close game, there’s 182 games, and you always get 3 to 4 games against your division rivals right before the end of the season.
Last year, the Mavericks won 50 out of 82 games. They were one loss away from playing Denver in the first round, three away from playing the Lakers and five from missing the playoffs altogether.
They played a shocking 26 games that were either decided by five points or less, or went to overtime. That means more than 25% of their games could easily have gone either way—nearly a third. And 20 of those went the Mavericks way. Were the Mavericks last year super-clutch? Yes. But that means, and I’m not going to do the actual math, but the Mavericks were at MOST 30 points, over the course of the whole season, from missing the playoffs, and 100 points from winning only 30 games.
And in the NBA, as opposed to baseball, only five players play at a time and opposing offenses and defenses can just go at one of them—pressuring him into turnovers, driving into his grill—where a pitcher can only pitch to your scrub once every 9 batters.
So are you going to be playing your long-term prospect against anyone but their scrubs? Oh? So he’s going to become NBA-ready in the D-league? If not, when WILL it happen?
Who knows. Probably the Mavs felt they couldn’t do better, by a longshot, than Roddy potentially COULD be. And they could be right. He impressed David Thorpe.
But let me say this. I didn’t watch the game, and David Thorpe did. But when was the last time YOU saw a “pure point guard” jack up six more shots than anyone else on either team? What about the fact that the guy we drafted for his interior quickness, his ability to get to the rim, took more than half of those shots (12) from three point range.
Are we sure this guy’s a slasher and passer? We’re definite, there? What about the fact that Roddy—who the Mavericks also drafted because he had the speed to stay in front of the quick points who routinely destroy the Mavericks defense committed 8 and 9 personal fouls, respectively, in the two games so far? I can understand it, when he was playing against Brandon Jennings in the first game, but I have a harder time against two guys named Newley and Conroy? I don’t know.
I’ll give him a break. By all accounts he’s a truly unbelievable athlete, and apparently he has nights where he can light it up from three. What’s wrong with that? In fact, I think this qualifies as good news unless you expected the kid—and no one did—to be Tony Parker this year. We know now that he has range, and that could well be the hardest thing for an athletic freak, without much polish, to pick up. I’m just saying, there are TENDENCIES that concern me between what he’s supposed to be and what evidently happened at that game.
Also in contrast, Ahmad Nivins, the Mavericks second round pick and the type of guy the Mavericks never draft (college pedigree, solid but without spectacular upside, big and with sound fundamentals), went 8-10 with 6 rebounds in the first game and 5-12 with 8 rebounds in the second game. I know 5-12 doesn’t kill you with anticipation, but it is only one away from 6-12 and he does have a .60 FG percentage so far. Keep in mind that 5-12 is one worse than Nivins shot in his worst shooting percentage game his entire last year in college, and that he had a 70% true shooting percentage. Can the Mavs use a big guy w ho likes to rebound and makes most of his shots? Yeah, I think so.
Besides that, Luke Jackson, a lottery pick several years ago who now only has his jumpshot to offer (as probably should always have been the case) has had 8 and 16 points respectively—but hasn’t shot particularly well. His 16 points came largely from 8-8 free throw shooting, which is more unusual than it should be in a league where you can’t foul out. Last year’s pick, Shan Foster, did not play in the last game after going 1-7 in the first. Someone named Andre Brown has started both games, despite scoring a total of 10 points. Gonna guess that his last game contributions of 0 rebounds, 0 assists, 4 PFs to go with his 5 is not going to score him more playing time.
Elsewhere there are rumblings that the Magic will match Cuban’s offer for Gortat, which would be very disappointing. It is, however, and has always been, possible. It’s true that with the recent signing of Bass, it seems illogical that a team searching for financial stability would pay that much money for a backup, but it’s not like that’s really the situation they have. He’s a backup, but he’s a backup to Dwight Howard, the best center in the league. Teams are definitely interested in him. Not that this is a fair comparison, but Manu Ginobili would be Kobe’s backup just the same as Bruce Bowen would be, if they were all on the Lakers.
How many teams in the league want a 24 year old center who’s a true 7 footer, mobile, agile, a good defender, who also has some offensive potential? Probably 25 out of 30. I think the longer you take to decide whether you can spend 30 million---which, while big money for a backup, is still just midlevel money—on a player who can not only keep your star rested while making a serious contribution, but who is also someone 25 teams in the league might want, verse letting him go for nothing, the more likely you are to say “you know what? Screw it. It’s not like we’re signing Lebron next year anyway.”
Or just, “ain’t MY money….”
We’ll see what happens. Cuban is not a man who gives up easily. One assumes he’s already having visions of his coach not having to choose between Erick Dampier, Ryan Hollins, or no defense at all in the final minute, and he won’t give that up easily. If that means they swing a deal for Emeka Okafor, great, but if it’s Marcus Camby---not so great.
Again---Gortat could still totally happen. It’s just by no means a sure thing and never has been one, and if it doesn’t happen, a lot still COULD happen. This could be (still) good news, or it could be bad news. We’re at a perilous place in Mavericks history. I don’t think Cuban went out to get a 31 year old 3 with declining skills and resigned a 37 year old point guard with declining skills to still get beat up in the paint and on the perimeter. Whether that means Gortat or desperation will soon be told—and whether that desperation works for the better or the worse is a question I hope Mavericks fans don’t have to discover.
Lastly, they’ll miss Brandon Bass, but the one position the Mavericks are certainly set in, is power forward. He’s a good player, but like Barea, he’s not a guy with a lot MORE upside than he’s shown. A 6’8” guy who likes to dunk and rebound and has a good 15 footer is great, but it’s not like he’s going to neutralize Pau Gasol. As a starter, he’ll probably average 18---but he’ll need minutes for it that the Mavericks just can’t give him. And it still may help the Mavericks land Gortat, which would be great.
Update: Bad news on the Gortat front. Still not confirmed, but it's what we've been hearing anyway....
Source
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
No comments:
Post a Comment