Wednesday, December 9, 2009

Deepest Team This Decade?

When Fabricio Oberto puts his signature to a contract sometime in the next few weeks, the Washington Wizards' 2009-10 roster will be set and Team President Ernie Grunfeld's offseason makeover will be complete. The Wizards will likely enter the season with 14 players who form arguably the deepest team this organization has fielded in 30 years - on paper, at least.
And it very well should be at a price tag of almost $86 million ($77.8 million in salary and $7.9 million in luxury tax penalties).
Grunfeld entered this summer with a roster of healing stars, some young developing players, some excess foliage on the bench and the No. 5 pick. He turned that into a roster of healing stars, some young developing players and three veterans who can contribute and become regular rotation players. Nineteen wins should become a distant memory next season, and the Wizards are looking at making one of the more dramatic turnarounds in NBA history next season.
No need to worry about the Wizards setting the record for biggest turnaround. The 2008 NBA champion Boston Celtics had a 42-game improvement from the previous season. This Wizards team is not going to win 62 games. The San Antonio Spurs improved by 36 games after adding Tim Duncan and a healthy David Robinson in 1997-98, and they had improved by 35 games after adding Robinson in 1989-90.
The 2004 Denver Nuggets had the largest improvement for a team that failed to win at least 20 games the season before, as Carmelo Anthony, Andre Miller and Marcus Camby led them to a 26-game turnaround. If the Wizards win 26 more games, they'll match the 2004-05 Wizards, who recorded the best regular season since 1979 (45-37).
My first year in Washington, I covered that team, which advanced to the conference semifinals for the first time since 1982. That team had an explosive young backcourt with Gilbert Arenas and Larry Hughes, the high-scoring, unorthodox power forward in Antawn Jamison, with the still-developing Brendan Haywood and Jared Jeffries filling in the gaps. The bench featured Jarvis Hayes, Kwame Brown, Juan Dixon, Steve Blake, Etan Thomas, Michael Ruffin and Anthony Peeler. That team improved by 20 wins from the previous season.
Now you have a team that features Arenas, two high-scoring forwards in Jamison and Caron Butler, a much-improved Haywood and a shooting guard spot that could be filled with either Mike Miller, Randy Foye or DeShawn Stevenson. Let's say that Coach Flip Saunders decides to start Miller, since he could be a big, playmaking guard who wouldn't mind being a setup man for Jamison, Butler and Arenas. That leaves a second unit of Foye, Nick Young, Stevenson, Mike James and Javaris Crittenton in the backcourt, with a frontcourt that features forwards Dominic McGuire and forward/centers JaVale McGee, Andray Blatche and Oberto.
You could make the case that this is the best team that Grunfeld has assembled since coming to Washington. But again, that's on paper. The Wizards have seven guards that bring varying skills -- Arenas (at least the healthy one we remember) is an all-star who can score from anywhere on the floor; Miller can shoot threes and create for others; Foye can play either guard position and score in spurts; Young is a streaky scorer; Stevenson is a tough-minded defender; James is a veteran who can get on an occasional hot streak and Crittenton is a change-of-pace point guard who thrives on his speed.
Then, you have all-stars Butler and Jamison, a defensive specialist in Dominic McGuire, two finesse big men in the multi-dimensional Blatche and hyper-athletic McGee, and a hard-fouling, flop artist in Oberto.
That roster has few players who overlap, giving Saunders the chance to mix and match and try different lineups. And, given Saunders's history, you have to assume that four or five of those guys won't even make the regular rotation.

There still are several question marks with team and none is bigger than the one that follows Arenas. Arenas told me that he plans on being in Chicago the next few months, continuing his rehab workouts with trainer Tim Grover. Memphis guard O.J. Mayo told SI.com that he has been picking Arenas's brain while running drills with him in Chicago. Arenas has been trying to maintain a low profile this offseason, trying to focus on what is an important season for him after losing two years from his prime because of the left knee injury.
Jamison turned 33 last month and is also recovering from ankle surgery, while Stevenson is coming off back surgery in March. But assuming that those three players can come back healthy, you still have wonder if McGee and Blatche will be consistent and reliable reserves. That being said, this team looks better than the one that won 45 games in 2004-05, even with the Eastern Conference improving exponentially the past five years. On paper, at least. 

No comments:

Post a Comment